How Could the Housing Market Change in 2026?

Entering 2026, the housing market appears to be settling into a more familiar pattern. Recent data suggests improving inventory, steadier mortgage rates, and slower price growth, all of which support a more predictable environment for buyers.

However, a new announcement has added an element of uncertainty that could affect how quickly conditions change. While it may turn out to be a short-term headline, it has the potential to introduce bigger market swings than many expected just weeks ago.

What the Data Says About the Housing Market in 2026

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates have remained in the low six percent range for several months, giving buyers a level of consistency they have not had in recent years. (MBS Highway)

That steadier range has supported activity. The Pending Home Sales Index recently posted its strongest performance in nearly three years after seasonal adjustment, signaling that buyers are reengaging as rate movement has become more predictable. (MBS Highway)

Looking ahead, the National Association of Realtors expects existing home sales to increase by roughly 14 percent nationwide in 2026, reflecting improved buyer participation as rates, inventory, and expectations begin to align. (NAR)

Home Price Growth

Home prices continue to rise nationally, but the pace of growth has slowed meaningfully compared to recent years. (HousingWire)

Data cited by MBS Highway shows significant regional variation, with roughly half of major markets seeing price declines while others, particularly in parts of the Midwest and Northeast, continue to experience growth. (MBS Highway)

NAR forecasts modest national price appreciation of approximately 2 to 3 percent in 2026, pointing toward a market where prices are moving more in line with income growth rather than accelerating rapidly. (NAR)

Inventory

Inventory conditions have improved compared to recent years, expanding buyer choice. Active housing inventory has returned to near-normal levels for the first major time since early 2022. (HousingWire)

In addition, NAR reports that overall inventory is roughly 20 percent higher than last year, easing some of the urgency and competition that defined prior market conditions. (NAR)

While inventory remains below pre-pandemic norms in many markets, the increase alone has helped shift the balance toward a more functional housing environment for buyers. (HousingWire)

A New Announcement Could Change How the Market Moves

While the broader outlook for 2026 points toward normalization, a recent announcement has introduced a new variable.

President Donald Trump ordered his representatives to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities, with the stated goal of lowering mortgage rates and improving housing affordability. (Reuters)

Large purchases of mortgage bonds can help push mortgage rates lower, which helps explain why mortgage-related stocks moved higher after the announcement.

What remains unclear is how quickly this plan could take effect or how long any market reaction might last. Headlines like this sometimes lead to short-term rate swings that fade, but they can also create brief opportunities before the market settles again.

This announcement does not necessarily negate the broader 2026 outlook, but it does serve as a reminder that rates, competition, and affordability could shift suddenly, and more quickly than expected.

Why Staying Connected to a Loan Officer Could Matter More Now

In a market that is dynamic and affected by so many different factors, opportunities can come at any moment. Short-term changes in rates or pricing can directly affect affordability, inventory, and competition, especially at the local level.

For buyers and real estate agents, this is where staying closely connected with a Movement loan officer becomes critical. When market conditions move, even briefly, having guidance that reflects real-time changes can help buyers act quickly rather than reacting after an opportunity has passed.

If you have questions about how this affects your goals in 2026, fill out the form below.